How to make €1000 from a 24% strike rate for the month on Horse Racing

I’ve took part this month in a betting challenge. As a keen follower of Horse Racing and in particular, Irish racing I watch almost every horse race. This being said you generally would note a few horses from each day, as ones to watch out for next time out.

To test my picking strategy, I placed a bet everyday for a month on my selections. The selections were mostly based in Ireland, with 1 selection in the UK.

Overall, I had 6 winners for the month. The winners average price was 5.5. I had 19 losers And 7 days of no betting, between no selection running and no racing.

The bet I chose was €50, on every horse. It’s important to keep your bets the same, as otherwise you can never truly cash in with bigger priced winners. I’ve found from the experiment that, value is of utmost importance. If a horse wasn’t above 3/1, in hindsight it’s not worth punting. Also, I’ve found out that it’s not above winning everyday, or getting 100% betting success. It’s about picking the same, when you go on a losing streak and not changing your principles. Through the course of this project, the biggest losing streak was 8, which is the equivalent of €400.

To conclude, I will investigate other betting strategies as the months continue and if you guys want me to look into any particular type of bets or explain anything further; let me know.

The Latest News & updates from a interesting jumps season!

The stars seem to fallen slightly as we look with dented hope amongst our  future champions. The bet of Samcro and Footpad, both winning first time out looked certain; however jumps is never as straight forward as it seems. The greats have to  once again prove themselves and have a long road ahead, to get that all conquering roar of the Cheltenham crowd.

Others, who hope their fortunes will be taking a turn for the better is the new quiet unique combination of Bryan Cooper and Paul Nolan. I think everyone would love to see the pair strike a partnership and become a competitive force on the global stage again. After setbacks for both, there seems to be a renewed hunger for success, which could be exactly what the jumps needs.

The jumps also has rejuvenated competitive nature of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliot back for a new season. The pair have had mixed opening to be polite about it. The both are suffering from slight issues with jockeys and also from having luckless starts to the season.

In Willie’s case I feel he has to start to trust Paul with the rides and divide up big races between the jockeys and finally put a succession plan in place. Either that or he will need to look elsewhere and find a suitable replacement, which won’t be easily found.

Elliot on the other hand has suffered from his horses starting the season slightly lacklustre. This was added to by the fact of novice mistakes from Jack to get a whip ban. One feels that Elliot and the more mature generals will have to push Jack to seek greater things, and focus his mind on the job. The curse of the wandering mind of the Gigginstown Silks has led many men down; dangerous roads of cups of tea.

Finally, there has to be comments on the great efforts of women jockeys, B. Frost and R. Blackmore, they have risen the bar of professionalism amongest women sports people. I think this is shown by ordinary punters confidence behind them, which hasn’t been seen since the days of Nina and Katie.

Has ITV Racing really changed the face of racing that much?

  • This short blog will critically analysis free to air racing and what ITV racing has really brought to the public. We the ordinary punters want to see quality information being given to the public and in the correct manner. Does the public feel this is the case, we will find out.
  • I’ve carried out research on locals and people on my travels across both countries. This research identified over 500 people who watched the programme and also who were willing to give their opinions.
  • The data that I collated suggested that ITV racing pundits are not put to full use. To explain on this the public suggested that some of the team could have more input if they got the chance.
  • They felt that Brian Gleeson, when brought across the waters added great knowledge.
  • They felt that Alice seemed very serious in her ways and that most of the public wanted the old cheerful Alice back.
  • They believed that for the bigger days it’s important to have team member Brough Scott on and If possible John Francome. They felt that these added unique qualities.
  • They also enjoyed the interaction Matt Chapman had with the bookmakers and that one bookmaker should be brought on the morning show; each week. They also suggested that Matt found great characters in the ring with bookmakers and celebrities and they enjoyed watching this.
  • They public noted that the banter between the characters was good to watch but can override the programme, on some shows.
  • They interviews suggested to me that ITV need to keep changing their views in line with the public and some fans suggested that staying static as they are with the intro, morning show tune and racing programme outline has already started to become dull.
  • Outside of racing the public suggested that the results of meetings across Ireland and UK should be streamed along the bottom of screen, they also felt that the premier league scores could be also imprinted across the screen. This would leave ITV interacting with all fans and not leaving their fans switching between channels.
  • Lastly, I’d like to thank all the people who participated in the interviews and also to people who sponsor Stableeye.
  • Hopefully, ITV racing can take these views on board and Implement their twist on them.

 

Who is Johnny Murtagh?

Firstly, I’d like to welcome all my readers back; as due to work commitments, content can’t always be uploaded for you.

In today’s article, Stableeye will give it’s opinion on JP Murtagh and whats on the horizon for him.

Firstly, he was born in Kells Co. Meath in 1970. He is known to most as a famous jockey but in recent years has applied himself very well to training.

As a child he was signed up Horse Racing because of his size and stature and being from Meath I’m confident he didn’t lack in determination or power. His mother got him a trial with Racing academy and he never looked back. Johnny has stated in many interviews that when he first got on a horse; he knew that was his career.

In terms of being a Trainer Johnny maybe doesn’t get the credit he deserves, due to his association with being a jockey. In 2017 he has had 196 Runs/ 21 wins and his best jockey has been Colin Keane with 14/4, which returned $5.35 for a level $1 stake. In 2016, Murtagh had 210/28, with Colin having again the best strike rate with 24/4, with a $8.00 level stake return.

In the future it’s clear to see JP is getting more accustomed to being a trainer. It will take another while before the public start to appreciate his training talent for what it is; as he standards as a jockey are set high.

Stableeye would hope Murtagh would have every success in the future and for you never know Colin might ride a few horses before year ends. If all else fails Johnny will be very much welcomed on Tv as his expert eye and views are exceptional to watch.

How to select horses to follow and who’s the right tipster for you!

Hey everyone, i decided i’d post this article sooner than planned as I’ve functions I need to attend in the UK next week. Hope you guys enjoy it and of course feel free to comment, question or debate your views.

How to follow the correct horses

There is a few easy steps to this and if you get the basic method of performing them you’ll start to knock in winners.

Watch the form: I think it’s over looked in most cases, you need to review races and watch them 4 to 5 times to see what horses caught your eye.

Select high rated races: The higher the rated race, the better the chances of the horses running a good consistent race next time out.

Watch the Races Head-on: This works well with flat races. If a horses runs a good straight line or if they go through a tight gap; this means your horse is willing to work to get a win. This all counts win you put your hard earned cash on the line.

Horses running an easy race: This happens a lot in maidens, but can be seen in most races. Remember though that the horses need to be up near the front, or close enough. Horses running on can sometimes be unlucky if picked next time out.

Stay away from Tips: The days of people giving each others tips is gone. There are a small minority that can access a good tip. So in most cases your better of having your select few horses and waiting for them to run.

Watch for Trainers: If a horse has ran a good race and has a good trainer, chances are that they will be entered in the right race for the horse next time out. You’ll soon realise what trainers you like or don’t as time goes on.

Don’t let your opinion interfere with horses: People have a habit of hating/disliking certain trainers/jockeys. This shouldn’t effect you picking the horse that has impressed you on video form.

Hope these little tips come in handy to you guys and hope you enjoyed reading them. As always RT and like.

P.s The Tipster to follow is Stableeye, for the most honest views in racing.

 

A Race course that may be losing contact with the public!

This is an email I received from a distressed follower who hoped i could be of assistance. I messaged Galway races on twitter and stated the issue in question and never heard any response. The email the person sent is below.

August 09, 2017

To whom it concerns,

On Sunday 6th August, my brother and I attended the last meeting of the summer festival at the Ballybrit course.

Unfortunately, the service provided by the Galway race track left us very disappointed and we put this down to three main reasons:

Firstly, we felt that this prestigious Ballybrit track is losing its older generation of race goers. The track is perceived by these race goers as money-grabbing, and the older generation now feel as if the track just wants their money at any cost. These views are shared by race goers in my local community. It can also be seen in the low attendance figures at Galway race meetings outside the main festival week.

Secondly, the cost of a day at the Galway races is steep. While the public understand the track needs to generate money from the festival, this shouldn’t translate into the public being exploited as soon as they enter the grounds and up until they leave.

An example of this occurred on Sunday – parking was €2. Parking grounds on the day were very muddy and people getting dirty and stuck in the mud was inexcusable. Adult and student entry were €20 and €15 respectively (this covers entry only – no racecard or extra benefits included).
We decided to eat in the carvery restaurant at the course, where two dinners were priced at almost €20 each. (The dinners were a struggle to eat and we were offered replacements, which was pointless when the quality was poor.) We then went and brought a race card for €3. This all occurred before we ever looked at a horse or placed a bet in a race. Also, on the off chance someone wants to buy a soft drink/tea/coffee, the prices are inflated across the track.

Lastly, the interaction between the track and the people is very poor. On Galway Bay FM on Sunday evening, Leon Blanche spoke and told the listeners that he felt the Wednesday meeting had lost some of the flair that it used to have in the past. This was very clear to see all week on television and it will continue to decline unless urgent action is taken.

These problems need be resolved in the near future as people are predicting the festival to shorten down to five days. I think it’s very important that the track finds a balance between the casual summer festival attendants and crowds of horse racing enthusiasts. The track needs to listen to the ordinary daily race goers and find solutions and ways forward as no one wants the festival to suffer.

I look forward to hearing your reply on the issues highlighted in this letter.

Lastly, i appreciate the Galway race track is busy, but if it can’t respond to the public; then it’s need of a change. I’ve heard several people at meeting across Ireland this year state similar problems, yet Galway race track hasn’t said they will do anything to change it.

Stableeye attended every day of Galway this year and felt that barring the exception of Monday and Tuesday, the racing came second. I’d love people to give me their thoughts and/or trainers/owners. I don’t particularly enjoy this articles but i feel it’s necessary to get the message across.

 

 

Irish Trainers and what’s next for Irish Racing!

In the coming weeks Stableeye will discuss the future of Irish racing and what trainers are doing to combat the changes in it. Stableeye will also discuss Irish trainers in general; starting this week with Michael O’ Callaghan, Jessica Harrington plus her daughter Kate and finally Michael Halford.

Firstly, the racing partners in Ireland are ageing; this means that with time will come change. The more established trainers in Ireland are pushing on and with that comes a new excited breed; waiting patiently for the spotlight to shine upon them. While people may be sceptical of change and new things I feel it’s not a time to be worried. In Ireland currently we are blessed with talent, whether that be horses, owners, staff or trainers.  It may take awhile for them to bed into society but I feel that the racing public will appreciate these trainers in the future.

The first trainer Stableeye looked into was that of Michael O’ Callaghan. A trainer with a big heart and big ideas. While some 28 year olds would be worrying about getting old, Callaghan ponders over what some think impossible. Like a good scientist he balances the elements of racing on a fine tooth comb, too much in one direction can tamper his dreams; too much in another can cost him his livelihood.

As Arnold Palmer once said “the more i practise, the luckier i get”. This certainly applies with this man. He works hard everyday to lift his stable of the ground. His new thoughts on racing was before his time and HRI are only adopting some of these methods now. The open access to the yard, makes people feel on a par with him. It’s not to often seen in Ireland,  but he is conveyed as an approachable trainer. The only flaw visible to the public eye with this masterful establishment is lack of a clear top level jockey. Now I’m sure this is not by choice and i do appreciate that, but one must feel if a top jockey was riding all the horses; how good he could be.

Secondly, Stableeye looks at Jessica Harrington and daughter Kate. People will agree she is probably one of the most likeable trainers in Irish horse racing. When you want experience, cool thinking, leadership and fearlessness you need look no further. You can say Conor McGregor can change disciplines, try training jumps and flat consistently for a living. It doesn’t matter if you gave a camel to this woman, she would find a race to win with it.

She’s a role model for people in general for sheer work rate and if for nothing else the way she goes about her work. She employs Colm O’ Donoghue and Puppy Power to ride for her, and to say their good is an under statement. An ex-Ballydoyle jockey with multiple big race wins gives her an competitive edge and Puppy doesn’t need an introduction after last years unbelievable performance.

Most people are now wondering why mention Kate if you weren’t discussing her, fear not public. Here’s where the training gets interesting. You’ve a top class amateur jockey, and a wonderfully charming woman to stand in as trainer. Older trainers have in times gone by not stood aside and let the new generations step in. This is not the case here, its important for Kate to experience training and talking to camera men and women, while Jessica can still advise her. The youth won’t know it all but they will learn overtime. You can be sure and believe that the Harrington name is going nowhere soon. The only underlying worry I would have is, I hope owners would support her in the change over.

Last but not least Michael Halford. While in the news lately for a spilt with his stable jockey Shane Foley, Halford has won many big races and is mister consistent. Nobody can blame Halford for spilt with his jockey or if they do they can’t see it from his point of view. When you’ve big owners comes big responsibility. The room for error decreases and in a game where margins are so tight, the smallest decision can win or lose a race. Halford along with staff have made the choice that if a top quality jockey is available he/she will ride the horse.

Halford from a trainers point of view is at a difficult junction in his career. Winners aren’t as enjoyable now, they are more of a must and big race winners at that. When he looks back on a career he can be thrilled, but i feel there is a emptiness inside of him for more big race winners. It’s no longer enough to be consistent, he needs to try and get winners on champions weekend and have a once in the lifetime sort of horse. I can assure the public that there is no better man to train a horse than him if it comes the way. In the case of a jockey, overall i feel like Foley will continue to ride winners but I feel the decision is justified.

Overall I hope the public get a sense of what these trainers are about and how Stableeye views them; as I’m sure does the public. I hope this article stokes a debate.

I would like to thank you all for reading and i appreciate the article being retweeted and follow me on wordpress.

 

Be aware of Gambling, Think twice, bet once.

While most betting online pundits try increase people viewing their social media and want them to be amazed by their winners and bets, it’s important to show the public the other side of betting as well. The side all betting and tipsters want people to forget or ignore.

While most people view some form of social media platform or view an online advertisement, not all of them understand the dangers that behind them. Tipsters or professionals in gambling study the form and make calculated guesses at the outcome. The public too often can set up accounts or bet in shops and waste hard earned money on events; that betting shops design to increase their income.

As a note of warning for the public, it’s great to get the buzz of having a bet, but it’s important to stay within your limits as a punter. Try to bet when of sound mind as the decisions made are usually clearer. A very important message explains this adequately; think twice, bet once.

Is the day for a Retained Jockey in Horse Racing over?

In times past it seemed great to have your own retained jockey. We seen it in Ireland for years; the owners would show their power and money by paying huge sums of money to a particular jockey to ride their horse; while more often than not leaving a jockey of higher class in the weigh room.

While most Irish Jockeys jump or flat are more than adequate, this counts for nothing when you come to the big meetings. It boils down to two simple questions;  Does the trainer believe in the jockey and does the owner believe in his trainer. We see it so often, owners push their weight around and force trainers into decisions. Sometimes these work and some they don’t.

At the end of the day the public will give a fair summary of what jockeys are good enough and what ones aren’t. Ryan Moore and Ruby Walsh, while they have some critics can more often than not deliver under pressure and make very little mistakes. In the Irish flat scene at the moment we see Colin Keane; Pat Smullen and Declan McDonagh as top jockeys. If a trainers wants to win these jockeys increase the horses chances significantly.  Colin rides for a good stable in Ger Lyons, Pat rides for Weld and branched out this year in order to try and win the jockeys title as Weld’s horses were off form and lastly Declan rides for Oxx as well as many other trainers. Punters love to back winners and if a jockey means more winners, well so be it. That’s no different for owners who see these jockeys win day after day, they feel pressured to change in order to win as its a money game in the end.

Finally, I see a future for most yards of taking the best available jockey on hand, barring the exception of bigger establishments who may want a particular jockey. Who knows what pressures jockeys are under but i feel in this game it’s about to get worse and you really need to have good contacts built up to survive.

Stableeye’s Guide to this weeks Irish Racing

Gowran Park Saturday

Dignified Air:

Ran a respectable race in Killarney last time and is available at 15/2 or 7/1.

Sleepy Head:

Ran in listowel on Sunday in June and finished second. Hopefully can one better here. Available currently at 9/2 or 5/1.

Galway Races Monday

Coffee:

Not a very reliable type of a horse but was in good company last time out. If the horse runs to form the punters should be able to get a cup.

Dorkas:

Last ran in Tramore and fell when travelling well. Hard to know how form will stack up. E/w shout at best i feel.

 

Galway Tuesday

Waikuku,  sometimes a fox,  ontheflist, Grey willow,  Quelez, Coeur d’amour,  Detailed,  Our Anniversary.

 

Fairyhouse Wednesday

Kion and Just sherry

Just a point to note, i will be travelling to Galway to watch Waikuku and Coeur D’amour battle it out. Two very smart horses; who were placed in a nice race at Curragh. Maybe just a race to watch for again i feel.